SCORECARD AS OF August 11, 2017

Posted by in News and Events on July 21, 2017 . 0 Comments.

FORECAST 2017 SCORECARD

AS OF AUGUST 11, 2017

 

Although 2017 is not yet over, several forecasts made in the 2017 book have already unfolded. We will list a couple of the forecasts below as of August 11. Keep in mind these forecasts were written in October-November 2016, and published December 1, 2016, well before 2017 got underway.

 

ECONOMIC AND MARKET FORECASTS FOR 2017 (made prior to December 1, 2016)

 

  • The Federal Reserve Board and Interest Rates: My best guess is that the Fed will tighten at first due to growing inflationary pressures and a desire to get back to normalcy, and then revert to loosening because it fears that the tightening is contributing to an economic downturn.” The Fed has raised its short-term rate three times (December, March, and June) since the book was written. However, after the June rate hike, the Fed expressed concern that inflation is still below its target and the economy is slowing down and therefore it may pause making future rate hikes.

  • T-Notes: “Treasuries (T-Bonds and T-Notes) are likely in new bear markets that will last 2-5 years. Major resistance is now between 129 and 134. Traders and investors are advised to adopt bearish strategies, selling all rallies (or hedging their bond portfolios) that fall below 129-134 this year.” The high so far in T-Notes has been 127/17 on June 14, the day of the Fed’s third rate hike after December 1, 2016.

  • The Stock Market and DJIA: “Long-term cycles in USA stocks are still in their bullish phase as we enter 2017. Therefore, we still expect new all-time highs. Our price target for an all-time high would be anywhere between 19,500-23,500 in 2017. There are a couple of time frames that could be extremely volatile (big reversal begins). These include February 22-April 21, May 19-June 16, July 17-August 25, and…” As of August 11, the DJIA is making a new all-time high above 22,100. Prior to that, new all-time highs occurred on March 1 and June 19-20, the trading day after June 16.

  • Gold: With these market-timing parameters in effect, traders can look for opportunities to buy Gold and Silver again, November 2016-February 2017, unless both markets take out their lows of December 2015… The importance of the 1200 level shows up on both the monthly and weekly charts of Gold…With Venus turning retrograde March 4-April 15, 2017, it is possible the corrective decline in Gold and Silver could last into that period.” After the book was written in November 2016, Gold made its low on December 15, 2016 at 1124. It then rallied sharply to 1265, before pulling back to 1194.50 on March 10, with Venus retrograde. After rallying back to test 1300, Gold fell again, back to 1204 on July 10, thus demonstrating the importance of the 1200 mark in 2017. As of August 11, 2017, it is again testing 1300.

  • U.S. Dollar: “… the U.S. Dollar is due to peak within 6 months of January 2017, when the new term of a Republican president will begin.” The crest was right on time as the U.S. Dollar soared to 103.82 on January 3, its highest mark in 14 years. As of August 2017, it is making new yearely lows.

  • Dollar/Yen: “…our bias is for a cycle high in the Dollar/Yen in late 2016 through early 2017, and then another sharp sell-off into May 2017, +/- 3 months, for a 5.5-year cycle trough.” The timing was right, as the high ended with a double top December 15, 2016 and January 3, 2017 at 118.60, and then declined sharply into the low of year (so far) on April 17 at 108.11. But it was not a new 5.5-year cycle low.

  • Euro Currency: “Given that the U.S. Dollar is due to top out any time prior to the end of July 2017 based on the USA 16-year presidential election cycle, there is a reason to think that the Euro currency could bottom during the same time (November 2016-July 2017). It could even happen by mid-January 2017. Our bias is that the Euro will find a long-term cycle low by mid-2017, between .9500-1.0300.” The Euro fell to a new 16.5-year cycle low on January 3, 2017, at 1.0339, an MMA 3-star critical reversal date. As of August 2017. it has traded above 1.1900, its highest level since January 2015.

  • British Pound (by Ulric Aspegrén, MMTA Graduate): Hence, from the 16-year and 8-year cycle perspective, the October 7 low is, time-wise, a valid candidate for the long-term trough… Once the trough is in, the expectation is for a rising British Pound until the next 16-year cycle crest.” The 1.1450 low of October 7, 2016 has held. As of August 2017, it has traded above 1.3260, its highest mark since the Bexit vote.

  • Corn: Given that I believe higher inflation is ahead, my bias is that the 18-year cycle will bottom anytime in the next three years, and perhaps it already did in August 2016, while the Saturn/Neptune waning square was still in its central time band (November 26, 2015-September 10, 2016). In this case, if that correlation holds, Corn is making its long-term (18-year) cycle trough… it is best when it happens during its central time band (November 2015-September 2016).” The $3.19/bu. low of August 31, 2016 held. As of this writing. Corn has rallied to a high of 4.17 on July 11, 2017.

  • Soybeans (by Kat Powell, MMTA Graduate): Technical cycle counts support the completion of the greater 16-year cycle in November of 2015. As proposed by Raymond Merriman, we may find that prices continue with his outlook from Forecast 2015, ‘For now, our forecast is for Soybeans to trade between 800-900 on the low side, and 1100-1350 on the high side.” The low of the year was $9.00/bu. on June 23, and the high so far has been 10.80 on January 18, but it rallying towards that area again as of this writing.

  • Wheat (by Mark Shtayerman and Izabella Suleymanova, MMTA Graduates): It is possible that the 42-month low will happen during December 2016 as Jupiter will be making its first waning square to Pluto, and thus translating light from Pluto to Uranus, activating through a powerful cardinal T-square.” Wheat made a double bottom on December 1, 2016 at $3.69/bu. The high 2017, so far, has been 556 on July 5.

  • Crude Oil (by Nitin Bhandari, MMTA Graduate): “The middle of three passages of the Jupiter/Uranus opposition will take place March 2, 2017. March 2017 is very interesting because it is packed with other powerful geocosmic signatures too. The second passage of the Jupiter/Pluto waning square takes place March 30. This is an important aspect that could lead to volatile price activity.” After achieving a double top high for the year so far on February 23 (less than one week before March) near $55/barrel, Crude started to collapse sharply in March, and continuing into the yearly low so far of 42.05 on June 21. The actual high of the year was January 3, right on a given critical reversal date (CRD) from the book.

 

EXAMPLES OF MUNDANE WORLD AND NATIONAL FORECASTS

 

  • “The period May 25-June 3 may see a rift developing between world leaders as a result of a violation to an agreement. Emotions run raw, and offenses are easily blown out of context.” On June 1, Donald Trump pulled out of the Paris climate accord, and unlashed a wave of emotional attacks against the USA and himself.

  • The first half of the year pointed to “Brazil and Turkey as countries that would be in the news due to threats to their existing government.” Erdogan of Turkey won a disputed election that granted him great powers to run Turkey, and President Michael Temer faces impeachment proceedings as a result of bribery allegations in Brazil. Former Brazilian president Lula da Silva was found guilty of corruption and sentenced to 10 years in prison in July.

  • “In 2017 (through Sept), the cardinal T-square is going to happen again (as in 2010-2011, and…) represents an increase of danger to human lives… via terrorist groups and their activities…” So far this year, there has been a surge of terrorist activities in London, England, Iraq, France, and the USA.

  • From the 2016 Book, written in Nov 2015 before the USA election in Nov 2016, but which applies to 2017: “This is a s close as one can come to making a prediction: If Mr. Trump is elected president, the USA’s probability for entering a war is extremely high, probably within his first few months in office.” He assumed office on January 20, 2017. In his 77th day in office, April 7, he bombed Syria. One week later, April 14, he dropped the MOAB – “mother of all bombs” – in Afghanistan.

  • “Saturn will be transiting 19-22° Sagittarius from December 18, 2016 through October 3, 2017, in direct opposition to the USA natal Mars, and square to Neptune. The USA is thus in a period where it wants to do something – wants to initiate action – but others (or someone else) wants to thwart, delay, or stop it altogether. With Neptune involved, disparaging allegations arise that makes the United States appear weak and unprincipled in the eyes of the world. These innuendos fan the flames of a witch-hunt, and potentially harm the reputation of the country and its leadership.” The Democrats determination to find collusion between Donald Trump and the Russians as a cause for impeachment has been called a “witch hunt” by Trump himself. As of this writing in July, new information keeps appearing to link the Trump family/campaign team to collusion with the Russians over possible interference in the 2016 USA presidential election.

  • “If the objective is to eliminate ISIS or other terrorist groups signified by the position of Pluto as the midpoint of the Jupiter/Uranus opposition (December 2016-September 2017), then so be. It can be done.” With Jupiter in Libra, the banding of the world community against ISIS has significantly reduced its status by mid-2017.

  • “Given that transiting Saturn is in Sagittarius, sign of foreign countries, and Mars is in the USA 9th house, which also rules foreign affairs matters, this issue could pertain to new laws designed to control illegal foreign immigration (December 18,2016 – October 3, 2017) … It could coincide with an executive decision by the government – the president – that is unpopular with much of the population.” President Trump’s decision to ban entry of individuals from certain middle eastern and African countries was unpopular and stuck down by some courts in the first half of 2017.

 

      And of course, the all-important Critical Reversal Dates. Many of the 2017 critical reversal dates given for various markets have been impressive, and several have coincided with yearly highs and lows so far, such as in the US Dollar, Euro, Gold, Silver, and Crude Oil.

 

Do you think this kind of accuracy would be valuable to traders? You betcha!

 

ORDER NEXT YEAR’S FORECAST BOOK NOW AND SAVE BIG BUCKS!!!

Tags: Forecasts 2017 Book, Scorecard Last update: August 12, 2017

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